Kandama · Melbourne market-entry model

Every figure below is computed live from the inputs — change anything and watch it recalculate, then click any number to see its formula. Check our numbers.

Year-1 operating profit
Loom-day utilisation
Cumulative multiple on the ask
on
Ready — change any assumption and every affected figure below will flash as it updates.
2
Every underlined figure below is clickable. It opens the formula, the live values substituted into it, where each input came from, and what the figure feeds into.

A · Capacity — the constraint that governs everything else

ceiling loom-days
Melbourne
loom-days
Domestic (consumed)
loom-days
Total used
Headroom
ⓘ

Domestic is sized by loom-day allocation, not by a unit target — the existing business gets first claim on the looms, and Melbourne is built from what is left. Rounding units to whole garments means the allocated loom-days actually consume . We display the consumed figure, not the target.

Melbourne share of ceiling
Headroom share
Buffer targeted by the allocation
loom-days
90-day Capsule gate
of

B · Product and pricing

Tier Loom-days Materials Weaver labour = COGS Base price Price GP / unit Margin

Prices are the pre-markup base × (1 + markup), rounded to the nearest ₱50 for a clean sticker price. COGS does not move with a price change — a weaver is still paid per loom-day — so every peso of markup falls straight to gross margin. Drag markup to 0% to answer “what if you hadn’t raised prices?”.

What the markup changes — computed live against a 0% counterfactual
Line At 0% markup At

Company-wide, Year 1 — context, not the investment case

SCOPE: NOT WHAT THE ASK BUYS
Company revenue
Company COGS
Company gross profit
Domestic share
Melbourne share

Melbourne — Year 1

Units
Loom-days
Revenue
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin

Philippines domestic — Year 1 (existing, self-funding)

Units (from allocation)
Loom-days consumed
Revenue
COGS
Gross profit
Gross margin
Tier split (rounded to whole garments)

C · Year-one Melbourne P&L

The programme funds the Melbourne pilot only. Domestic revenue does not appear here.

Revenue to operating profit, step by step

D · The ask, and the reconciliation judges will ask about

Reconciliation
Assets charged to the ask
Assets charged to Year-1 P&L
Difference
Payback on the programme ask

The ask buys the full asset build in Year 1; the P&L charges only one amortisation year of it. The difference is spent cash serving Years 2 and 3 — not a hole in the numbers.

E · Unit economics

CAC
acquisition spend ÷ Melbourne units
Gross profit / unit
GP : CAC
Break-even sell-through
where operating profit crosses zero
Acquisition spend totals . Double the units and CAC halves — it is spend ÷ units, not a per-unit constant.

F · Weaver economics — both markets counted

Total labour cost
Income per weaver / year
Days worked
of available
personal utilisation
Benchmark (per day) Rate Our rate vs it

This is supplementary income earned alongside farming, not a full salary. Weaving fits into the weeks rice farming leaves open, which is exactly why loom-days per weaver is capped well below a working year.

G · Five years, two markets, reconciled

Melbourne Philippines domestic
Yr Weavers Ceiling Mel units Mel revenue PH units PH revenue Used Util. Mel op profit Company rev
Revenue by market, with weaver recruitment marked
Loom-day utilisation against the ceiling each year
Cumulative Melbourne revenue
Cumulative Melbourne op profit
the programme ask
Cumulative domestic revenue
context only, not the ask
Cumulative company revenue
GP
Weaver livelihood across the five years

H · Sensitivity — all three cases at once, not a toggle

The whole Melbourne mix scales with sell-through relative to the base rate. The gate is of 220 Capsule units in 90 days — units, not price.

Operating profit by sell-through, against zero
Break-even sell-through

I · Robustness — what if we are wrong

Which assumption moves the answer most — each input flexed on its own
%

The two most fragile estimates together — loom-days per weaver against sell-through

Each cell is Year-1 Melbourne operating profit at that combination. Crimson cells cannot be delivered at all: the plan needs more loom-days than that weaver capacity provides, whatever the demand.

undeliverable loss → profit, low to high ◻ outlined cell = current assumptions
Monte Carlo — all the fragile estimates moving at once
Read this before reading the result. The spread used here is not sourced — no variance data exists for any of these inputs, so we chose a symmetric ± band around each current value and sampled the inputs independently. Correlations between them are not modelled, and neither is demand risk. This tells you how much the answer moves when the fragile estimates move together. It is not a probability of commercial success, and we would not present it as one. The draw is seeded, so the same settings always give the same numbers.

Every headline figure, in one place

Each line is computed from the inputs, not transcribed. This is the model of record — anything presented elsewhere is derived from here.

Topic Live figures

J · Assumption audit — every input, and what breaks if it is wrong

Sorted by provenance: estimates first, because those are the ones that can be wrong.

Input Tag Default Current Source What breaks if this is wrong

Scope and limitations

Scope. The programme ask funds the Melbourne pilot only. The Philippines domestic business is Kandama’s existing, self-funding operation and appears here for capacity context. The ask does not buy company-wide revenue.

The core model is deterministic. The Monte Carlo section varies the fragile estimates simultaneously, but the spread it uses is our own choice rather than measured variance, the inputs are sampled independently, and it does not model demand risk — so it shows how much the answer moves, not how likely the plan is to succeed. The model does not cover working-capital timing within the year, tax, FX movement inside a drop, or inventory carried between years. Unsold pieces are treated as numbered inventory that sells into the following year rather than as a write-off. Loom-days per garment and loom-days per weaver are the team’s estimates and are the two inputs most likely to be wrong; Gate 1 in October 2026 exists to measure both before any edition is promised.

Acceptance check (runs against the defaults)